Pokemon TCG Chaos Rising Price Report: Post-Release Investment Guide (May 2026)

Pokemon TCG: Mega Evolution — Chaos Rising (set code ME04 / CRI) released in North America on May 22, 2026, and it hit the secondary market like a freight train. Six days post-release, the data is clear: this is the most hotly anticipated Mega Evolution set since Phantasmal Flames, driven entirely by one Pokémon who has held the #1 spot in global fan polls since 2020. Mega Greninja ex is here, and the market responded accordingly.

This post-release price intelligence report covers every high-value single and every sealed product format in the Chaos Rising expansion, with full price trajectories from presale through the first week on shelves. Platform data was cross-referenced across TCGPlayer, eBay, and PriceCharting, with confidence ratings assigned to every projection. Whether you are holding MSRP-purchased sealed product, sitting on pulled singles, or looking for the optimal entry point right now, this guide tells you exactly where you stand.

The short version: the sealed flip window has largely closed for anyone who did not secure MSRP stock. Singles are the play now, with the SIR Mega Greninja ex (#116/086) correcting toward a $380–$420 floor before an anticipated sustained climb, and the MHR Mega Greninja ex (#122/086) standing out as the highest-upside grading target in the set despite its counterintuitively lower raw dollar price.

What Is Chaos Rising? Set Overview and Key Specs

Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution — Chaos Rising is the fourth expansion in The Pokémon Company's Mega Evolution Series. It is the English counterpart to the Japanese set Ninja Spinner and contains 86 base cards plus 36 secret rares, for a total of 122 cards. The set's headliner is Mega Greninja ex, making its TCG debut following its appearance in Pokémon Legends: Z-A. Additional notable Mega Evolution debuts include Mega Floette ex, Mega Dragalge ex, Mega Pyroar ex, and Mega Gallade ex.

Set Specifications

Pack Contents and Pull Rates

Each Chaos Rising booster pack contains: 4 Commons, 3 Uncommons, 1 Reverse Holo (Common/Uncommon/Rare), 1 Reverse Holo or Illustration Rare or Special Illustration Rare or Mega Hyper Rare, 1 Rare or Double Rare or Ultra Rare, 1 Basic Energy, and 1 Pokémon TCG Live code card.

Pull rates are the critical context for understanding price stratification in this set. Illustration Rares land roughly once every 4 to 5 packs, meaning they are relatively accessible and price accordingly. Special Illustration Rares hit at approximately 1 in 80 to 100 packs — about one per two and a half booster boxes. The Mega Hyper Rare sits at a staggering 1 in 1,260 packs, which is roughly one per 35 booster boxes. This extreme scarcity is the core of the MHR investment thesis, discussed in detail below.

Chaos Rising in the Mega Evolution Series Context

Understanding Chaos Rising requires situating it within the broader Mega Evolution Series. Phantasmal Flames (ME02) set the benchmark with its SIR Mega Charizard ex reaching $800 and above. Perfect Order (ME03), featuring Mega Zygarde ex V2, served as the most recent comparable release and is the primary analogue for price trajectory projections. Greninja's 2020 Pokémon of the Year title and massive global fanbase make Chaos Rising significantly more demand-driven than Perfect Order, supporting the thesis that it will sustain a higher price floor across all product types.

High-Value Singles: Complete Price Analysis (May 28, 2026)

All price data below was cross-referenced across TCGPlayer, eBay, and PriceCharting and reflects 6 days of post-release market activity (May 22 to 28, 2026). Confidence levels are assigned individually to each data point based on confirmed sold listing volume.

Card #1: SIR Mega Greninja ex (#116/086) — The Undisputed Chase Card

The SIR Mega Greninja ex is the single most coveted card in Chaos Rising and the headliner of the entire ME04 expansion. Illustrated by Susumu Maeya, this card is part of a three-card connected artwork series alongside the Froakie IR (#088) and Frogadier IR (#089). The full triptych is considered the most impressive connected art sequence in the entire Mega Evolution lineup, and collector demand for all three cards is intrinsically linked.

Greninja was voted the #1 Pokémon of the Year globally in 2020, which provides an enormous demand foundation that sets it apart from every other card in the set. Greninja-themed cards have a documented track record of producing triple-digit chase prices, and this SIR — its first Mega Evolution TCG appearance — follows that pattern.

SIR Mega Greninja ex (#116) Price Trajectory

The card peaked at $600 to $620 during pre-release speculation (mid-May), then corrected sharply to $506 on release day as packs physically reached collector hands and supply registered on the market. It is currently sitting at $432 to $449, down 28% from its pre-release peak. Listings as high as $500 or more are still visible, reflecting the slow normalization of seller expectations.

The PSA 10 estimate for this card is $2,475 based on PriceCharting's grading model — no actual PSA 10 sales have occurred yet as the set is too new. This is the most important data point for long-term holders. At a raw cost of $432 to $449 and a grading fee of roughly $25 to $50, the net upside to a confirmed PSA 10 is more than $2,000 per copy.

Investment Verdict: SIR Mega Greninja ex

This card is following the exact pattern documented in major Mega Evolution SIR chase cards: high pre-release speculation, sharp correction at release, and gradual floor-finding over weeks one through four. The benchmark comparison is SIR Mega Charizard ex from Phantasmal Flames, which took four to six weeks to find its floor before beginning a sustained long-term climb. For Chaos Rising, the floor is projected in the $380 to $420 range over the next two to three weeks.

• Bought below $400 during presale: You are profitable. Hold or grade.
• Buying now at $430–$450: Speculative. A further 10 to 15% correction is likely before the floor is confirmed.
• Long-term play: Grade immediately if pulled pack-fresh. PSA 10 population will be extremely low in the near term, amplifying realized prices.
• 6–12 month outlook: $600 to $800 if graded, following the Charizard analogue. Confidence: Medium.

Check shop on eBay for current Buy-It-Now prices, or view recent eBay sold prices to track the correction in real time.

Card #2: MHR Mega Greninja ex (#122/086) — The Contrarian Grail

The MHR Mega Greninja ex is the single rarest card in Chaos Rising. As the only Mega Hyper Rare in the set, it is a fully gold full-art card pulled at approximately 1 in 1,260 packs. To put that in concrete terms: you would need to open roughly 35 booster boxes to statistically expect one copy. This is the definition of a low-population, high-scarcity grading target.

Here is the counterintuitive reality: the MHR currently trails the SIR in raw dollar price. At $315 to $345, it is roughly $100 cheaper than the SIR (#116) despite being 12 to 15 times rarer by pull rate. The reason is collector psychology. The SIR features Susumu Maeya's detailed, full-artwork scene, which is what most collectors want for display. The MHR's gold treatment, while visually striking, is currently underweighted by the raw card market.

This is precisely the kind of mispricing that grading corrects over time.

Key Price Data: MHR Mega Greninja ex

• Pre-Sale Range: $350–$500
• Current (May 28): $315–$345 (eBay sold); $334 TCGPlayer
• PSA 10 Estimate: $1,705 (PriceCharting projection)
• Grading Cost: ~$25–$50
• Net Upside to PSA 10: +$1,360 or more
• Confidence (PSA 10 estimate): Medium — based on PriceCharting's model; no actual PSA 10 sales yet

Investment Verdict: MHR Mega Greninja ex

This is the long-game grail card of Chaos Rising. Ungraded sellers who flip this card raw are leaving significant money on the table. Anyone who pulled this from a pack should submit it to PSA immediately. Pack-fresh submissions yield the best centering odds, and extremely low early-set PSA 10 populations amplify realized prices in the near term.

In prior Mega Evolution sets, the gold MHR format has historically appreciated strongly six to twelve months post-release, often catching up to or surpassing the SIR in total value as the graded population normalizes and collector demand shifts toward documented scarcity. The MHR's pull rate is so extreme that PSA 10 copies will remain genuinely rare even as the set matures. Confidence: Medium-High.

Find current raw listings by browsing shop on eBay, or verify recent sale prices through recent eBay sold prices.

Cards #3–7: Secondary Chase Singles and Value Holds

Card #3 — SIR Cinccino ex (#119/086) — $88–$90 | The Market Surprise

Cinccino ex is the market's overperformer, and it earns its position. Illustrated by Keisin (known for the Prismatic Evolutions Glaceon SIR), this card depicts Cinccino in an elaborate pillow-fort scene dripping with cozy charm. Despite having no notable competitive viability, collector demand has kept it the third most valuable single in the entire set at $88 to $90.

• Pre-Sale High: $110–$120
• Release Day: $98
• Current (May 28): $88–$90
• PSA 10 Estimate: $479
• Investment Verdict: This card is approaching its floor. Great art combined with a beloved, widely recognized character equals stable, durable collector demand. A reasonable buy-and-hold at under $90 for investors who believe in the character's long-term fandom. The short-term flip window has passed, but the long-term case is sound. Confidence: Medium.

Track pricing on eBay or check recent eBay sold prices.

Card #4 — SIR Mega Dragalge ex (#118/086) — $55–$70 | Speculative Hold

Dragon-type SIRs have historically maintained value in the Pokémon TCG market, and Mega Dragalge ex checks that box. Illustrated by Kazumasa Yasukuni in swirling pinks and blues, this card carries competitive relevance that Cinccino does not. Its Deadly Poison stacking damage mechanic could become a meta component if Roxie-based poison decks gain traction in tournament play following the set's wider integration into the competitive format.

• Current: $55–$70 (wide spread indicates price discovery still in progress)
• Investment Verdict: Wait for the spread to compress before buying. If poison decks gain traction in regional and championship play, this card spikes. The combined collector and competitive demand story is the bull case. Speculative hold. Confidence: Low-Medium.

View current listings on eBay or research recent eBay sold prices.

Card #5 — SIR Mega Floette ex (#117/086) — $44–$60 | Lore-Driven Collector Card

Mega Floette ex is a significant character in Pokémon Legends: Z-A, making its TCG debut in this set alongside a companion card that drives dual-card demand. Illustrated by Teeziro with rainbow lens flares, it currently sits in the $44 to $60 range. The companion Supporter SIR, AZ's Tranquility (#120), depicts the AZ and Floette reunion from the game's story — and owning both cards as a pair is an established collector goal that sustains demand for each card individually.

• Current: $44–$60
• Investment Verdict: Solid collector card with built-in character fandom from Legends: Z-A. The narrative pairing with AZ's Tranquility creates symbiotic demand. Hold. Confidence: Medium.

Browse eBay listings or check recent eBay sold prices.

Card #6 — SIR AZ's Tranquility (#120/086) — $38–$50 | Buy-and-Hold Supporter SIR

Supporter SIRs have proven their staying power in the Mega Evolution series. Cards from the Ascended Heroes Supporter SIR tier have climbed 200 to 500% or more since their release, establishing a clear historical precedent. Illustrated by OKACHEKE, AZ's Tranquility is also functionally relevant as a Switch variant that synergizes with Meowth ex — giving it both collector and playability demand vectors.

• Current: $38–$50
• Investment Verdict: This is a reasonably priced entry point with both functional and aesthetic demand. Supporter SIRs with character significance historically appreciate as set supply compresses. Buy and hold. Confidence: Medium.

Find it on eBay or review recent eBay sold prices.

Card #7 — SIR Roxie's Performance (#121/086) — $30–$38 | Fan Fandom Floor

Roxie is a fan-favorite Unova character — the Poison-type Gym Leader from Pokémon Black 2 and White 2 — with a dedicated and passionate following. Illustrated by Tomowaka in a punk rock aesthetic that perfectly captures the character, this Supporter SIR currently sits at $30 to $38, slightly below its release-day price of $38 to $45. SIR Supporter cards historically outperform their initial post-release prices as set supply compresses over months.

• Current: $30–$38
• Investment Verdict: Reasonable floor. Buy if under $35. Character fandom is durable and the Supporter SIR historical track record supports appreciation. Confidence: Medium.

Check current listings on eBay or browse recent eBay sold prices.

Cards #8 and #9 — IR Froakie (#088) and IR Frogadier (#089) — $23 / $20 | Triptych Play

Froakie and Frogadier form the first two parts of the three-card connected artwork series that culminates in the SIR Mega Greninja ex (#116). Their value is intrinsically tied to the SIR. Collectors who want to display the complete triptych must own all three cards, and that demand is durable as long as the SIR retains its status as one of the set's top chase cards. Both have corrected significantly from presale peaks (Froakie from $40 to $23 to $25; Frogadier from $30 to $19 to $20), but have likely found support near current levels.

• Investment Verdict: Low-risk buy-and-hold as a paired set alongside the SIR Greninja. The triptych narrative creates persistent demand. Modest upside individually, but meaningful as a collector ensemble. Confidence: Medium.

Track both cards on eBay or review recent eBay sold prices.

The Grading Opportunity: PSA and CGC Upside

With PSA 10 estimates already tracked for the top Chaos Rising chase cards, grading represents the single highest-upside play for anyone who pulled premium cards from packs. The table below summarizes the raw-to-graded value spread for the three most grading-worthy singles in the set.

Important caveat: PSA 10 estimates above are projections based on PriceCharting's grading model. No actual PSA 10 sales have occurred yet for Chaos Rising cards — the set is too new. Actual realized prices will depend on the PSA 10 population report. Extremely low early-set populations amplify value significantly; as the population grows over months, PSA 10 premiums will compress.

Grading Best Practices for Chaos Rising Cards

• Submit pack-fresh pulls immediately. Cards pulled directly from packs and submitted to PSA without handling have the best odds for clean corners, surface, and centering scores.
• Use PSA Economy or Standard tier. Given current turnaround times, economy tier is adequate for long-term holds. Express submission is worth the premium only if you anticipate a short-term graded market spike.
• Prioritize MHR over SIR for grading ROI ratio. The MHR has a lower raw acquisition cost relative to its PSA 10 upside, making the grading ROI ratio more efficient even though the SIR's absolute upside is higher.
• Check centering carefully before submitting. SIR and MHR full-art cards in the Mega Evolution series can exhibit centering variance. A card that is clearly off-center is better sold raw than sent to PSA, where an 8 or lower grade can actually suppress value below the raw market price.

Sealed Product: Complete Price and Flip Analysis

Chaos Rising sealed product launched into a market where anticipation was at its highest since Phantasmal Flames. Every product format commanded significant premiums above MSRP within hours of going live — but six days post-release, the window for profitable flips has narrowed dramatically for anyone who did not secure retail-price inventory.

Booster Box (36 Packs) — $235–$245

The Booster Box remains the strongest value proposition for resellers, primarily because its per-pack cost at secondary market ($6.60 per pack) is the most efficient of any Chaos Rising product. The box peaked at $273 pre-release on May 11 — notably two weeks before release, which is a consistent pattern for Mega Evolution sets. It then held at $259.95 through release day before correcting to the $235 to $245 range.

Anyone who secured boxes at MSRP ($179.99) from a local game store, Walmart, or Target is sitting on $55 to $65 per box in gross profit before fees, representing a 30 to 36% gross margin. The Booster Box price trajectory mirrors Perfect Order exactly: peak two weeks pre-release, release-day stability, then a gradual descent. If the Perfect Order analogue holds, expect an additional 15 to 20% compression over the next three to four weeks, suggesting a floor around $200 to $215 by mid-June.

Action: If holding MSRP-purchased stock, sell now or within two weeks. Secondary market buyers at $235 to $245 face negative margins as prices continue to compress. Do not buy Booster Boxes at secondary market to flip. Confidence: High.

Pokémon Center ETB (11 Packs + Stamped Promo) — $200–$225

The Pokemon Center ETB is the rarest and most profitable sealed product in the set. Sold exclusively at Pokemon Center for $59.99 with a Fennekin stamped promo card and 11 packs (versus 9 in the standard ETB), it sold out within hours of going live. Secondary market prices immediately jumped to $475 and above pre-release, and the product has now settled at $200 to $225 — still a 233 to 275% premium over its original retail price.

This is the single best sealed flip if you secured at retail: $59.99 to $200 to $225 represents $140 to $165 in gross gain per unit. However, the opportunity is effectively inaccessible for anyone buying at secondary market prices today. The spread has compressed enough to eliminate margin at resale. eBay sold comps from May 26 confirm the $154.89 to $225 range. Confidence: High.

Elite Trainer Box (9 Packs + Accessories) — $80–$92

The standard ETB experienced a release-day spike rather than a pre-sale peak — indicating that retail stock sold out before release and secondary market bidding intensified on launch day itself. It hit $119.74 on May 22 before correcting 27.3% to the current $80 to $92 range in just six days. At $9.50 per pack, it is the least efficient sealed product by pack cost compared to the Booster Box at $6.60 per pack.

Action: The ETB flip window closed. Release-day sellers at $119 and above had the best opportunity. Current holders at $80 to $92 may break even or take a small loss versus presale purchase prices. Hold rather than take a loss. Confidence: High.

Booster Bundle (6 Packs) — $46–$50

The Booster Bundle is the most underrated flip among smaller Chaos Rising products. At MSRP of $29.99 versus a current secondary market price of $46 to $50, anyone who secured MSRP stock has $16 to $20 in gross profit per unit. The per-pack cost at secondary market is approximately $7.90 per pack — the best rate among small-format products. This product was easy to source in quantity at retail, making it particularly attractive for volume flippers.

Action: Still viable if holding MSRP stock. Liquidate within the next two to three weeks before retail restock pressure reduces the premium further. Confidence: Medium-High.

Build and Battle Box (4 Packs + Promo Deck) — $52–$56

MSRP was $19.99; pre-sale peaked at $64; current price is $52 to $56. The 160 to 180% premium over MSRP looks impressive, but the per-pack cost of approximately $14 per pack is the worst of any Chaos Rising product. Nearly all the value is in the promo card rather than the pack content. If possible, separating and selling the promo card individually yields better returns than selling the box sealed.

Single Booster Pack — $7.50–$9.00

Packs pre-sold as high as $12.65 and have now settled at $7.50 to $9.00. Based on Perfect Order's analogue (packs at $10 presale, settling at $6 by week six), Chaos Rising packs are projected to compress to $5.50 to $7.00 within four to six weeks. Do not buy individual packs at secondary market prices to resell. Confidence: High.

Booster Box Case (6 Boxes) — $1,400–$1,450

Pre-sale peaked around $1,600. Cases are now trading at $1,400 to $1,450 on eBay. If secured at near-MSRP equivalent ($1,080 for 6 boxes), gross margin is $320 to $370 per case. The economics mirror the single box, scaled up. Move inventory now if held at MSRP. Confidence: High.

Price Trajectory Analysis: Pre-Sale Through Post-Release

Tracking the day-by-day price movements of Chaos Rising's most important products reveals consistent patterns that resellers can use to calibrate timing decisions. The data below is sourced from TCGPlayer market prices and eBay completed listings.

Booster Box Price Trajectory (TCGPlayer, May 2026)

Pattern note: The Booster Box peaked two weeks before release — a consistent Mega Evolution set behavior — and has corrected approximately 11% since release day. If the Perfect Order analogue holds, an additional 15 to 20% compression is expected over the next three to four weeks, suggesting a floor around $200 to $215 by mid-June. Confidence: Medium.

ETB Price Trajectory (TCGPlayer, May 2026)

Pattern note: The ETB's release-day spike rather than a pre-sale peak indicates retail stock sold out before launch, concentrating secondary market buying pressure on release day itself. The subsequent 27% correction in six days is the most dramatic post-release move of any Chaos Rising product. The ETB's 24 to 48 hour flip window on or around May 22 has definitively closed. Confidence: High.

Comparable Set: Perfect Order (ME03) vs. Chaos Rising Projections

Because Greninja is significantly more popular than Zygarde (the Perfect Order headliner), Chaos Rising is expected to sustain a slightly higher price floor than Perfect Order across all product types. The Greninja fandom premium provides a cushion for long-term holder thesis. Confidence: Medium.

Reseller Strategy: Action Plan by Time Horizon

The key insight from six days of post-release data is unambiguous: the sealed product flip window has largely closed for buyers sourcing at secondary market prices. Every sealed format now projects negative to flat margins if purchased at current secondary prices and sold in four to six weeks. The play has shifted entirely to singles, grading, and strategic hold positions.

Immediate Action Items (Next 0–7 Days)

Sealed Product Flip Rankings (For Secondary Market Buyers)

For resellers sourcing at current secondary market prices rather than MSRP, all sealed products project negative margins over a four to six week hold period. This table is provided to confirm that the sealed flip window has closed:

Where to Focus Now: The Singles Playbook

With sealed flipping off the table, the immediate opportunity set is in singles. Three categories make sense at current price levels:

1. Buy and grade MHR Mega Greninja ex if pulled or purchased raw. This is the highest-upside grading play in the set. At $315 to $345 raw versus a $1,705 PSA 10 estimate, the math is compelling even after accounting for grading costs and the fact that not every submission earns a 10.
2. Buy SIR Cinccino ex, SIR AZ's Tranquility, and SIR Roxie's Performance as set-maturation holds. These three cards are in or near their floors, have strong collector demand bases, and fit the Supporter SIR appreciation pattern documented across prior Mega Evolution sets.
3. Watch SIR Mega Greninja ex for an entry around $380–$420. Do not chase the current price. The floor is not yet confirmed. Buy only when price stabilizes in the projected range, then hold for long-term appreciation. The 6 to 12 month thesis targets $600 to $800 graded, based on the Phantasmal Flames SIR Mega Charizard ex analogue.

Broader Pokemon TCG Market Context (Week of May 27, 2026)

Chaos Rising is launching into a Pokemon TCG market that remains broadly hot in mid-2026. Understanding where attention and capital are flowing beyond the new release is essential for resellers managing diversified TCG portfolios.

Notably, even during Chaos Rising's release weekend, TCGPlayer's Movers and Shakers list featured Ascended Heroes cards prominently, including SIR Pikachu ex at approximately $1,400 and SIR Mega Gengar ex at approximately $1,375. This means collector attention and reseller capital is split. Chaos Rising has to compete with an established, still-appreciating set that commands even higher per-card values.

The broad market context strongly supports the long-term holding thesis for Chaos Rising chase cards. Vintage and prior-set cards are appreciating sharply in 2026, and the overall collector pool is expanding. New-set euphoria typically fades in weeks two through six, after which quality cards with genuine scarcity and beloved Pokémon begin a slower, steadier appreciation trajectory. The Gengar and Mimikyu-GX price chart — from $200 in 2023 to $1,365 in 2026 — is the kind of precedent that makes a well-graded SIR or MHR Mega Greninja ex compelling as a multi-year hold. Confidence: High.

Red Flags and Risk Factors

No investment thesis is complete without a clear-eyed assessment of the risks. Four specific risk factors apply to Chaos Rising that resellers should monitor closely.

Risk 1: Small Set Syndrome

With only 86 base cards plus 36 secret rares, Chaos Rising is structurally smaller than sets like Ascended Heroes. Value gets concentrated in fewer cards, which amplifies highs but also means the set may be perceived as "complete" by collectors faster. A set that collectors feel they have finished typically sees reduced long-term pack-cracking demand, which compresses sealed product prices more aggressively than larger sets. Monitor community sentiment for signs of this effect.

Risk 2: Retail Restock Risk

If Target, Walmart, or game distributors receive significant secondary allocation in weeks two through four post-release, secondary market prices for sealed products could drop sharply and suddenly. This is the most unpredictable risk factor for sealed holders and the primary reason to liquidate MSRP-acquired sealed stock sooner rather than later.

Risk 3: Attention Competition from Ascended Heroes

Ascended Heroes continues to dominate the Pokemon TCG secondary market even during Chaos Rising's launch period. With SIR Pikachu ex at approximately $1,400 and SIR Mega Gengar ex at approximately $1,375, Ascended Heroes occupies the headline conversation. Chaos Rising must compete for both collector spending and reseller capital. If Ascended Heroes accelerates further, discretionary demand for Chaos Rising may be slower to develop.

Risk 4: PSA 10 Population Growth

PSA 10 estimates for the SIR and MHR Mega Greninja ex are currently projections from PriceCharting's model, based on no actual PSA 10 sales. As the population grows over the coming months, PSA 10 premiums will compress. Early submitters benefit the most from low-population dynamics; investors who wait to submit will face increasingly crowded graded markets. This reinforces the recommendation to grade immediately rather than holding raw.

Final Verdict: Where Chaos Rising Stands Six Days Post-Release

Six days into its post-release lifecycle, Pokemon TCG: Mega Evolution — Chaos Rising has delivered exactly what the data suggested it would: a high-demand release with a sharp post-launch correction that is now settling toward its medium-term floor. The set performs above the Perfect Order analogue on the strength of Greninja's fandom, but below the Phantasmal Flames peak because it lacks a Charizard-level IP anchor. It is firmly in the middle tier of Mega Evolution sets — well above Perfect Order, with the long-term potential to approach Phantasmal Flames territory if graded SIR and MHR copies dominate the narrative over the next six to twelve months.

The headline conclusions are clear: sealed flipping is over for secondary market buyers, the SIR Mega Greninja ex is still seeking its floor, and the MHR Mega Greninja ex is the most structurally undervalued card in the set given its pull rate. Investor actions taken in the next two to three weeks — specifically submitting MHR copies to PSA, watching the SIR for a confirmed floor entry, and picking up secondary SIRs like AZ's Tranquility and Roxie's Performance at current levels — will determine whether Chaos Rising becomes a profitable chapter or a cautionary tale.

Confidence summary by position:

• SIR Mega Greninja ex, long-term graded hold: Medium-High confidence in $600–$800 PSA 10 target within 6–12 months, conditional on Greninja maintaining its elite character popularity
• MHR Mega Greninja ex, grade and hold: Medium-High confidence in PSA 10 outperforming raw market over 6–12 month horizon
• Secondary SIRs (Cinccino, AZ's Tranquility, Roxie's Performance): Medium confidence in gradual appreciation as set supply compresses
• Sealed product at secondary market prices: High confidence that current prices produce negative to flat margins — skip
• Sealed product at MSRP: High confidence that selling now is the correct move before further compression

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Pokemon TCG card prices are volatile and subject to rapid change. Past performance of comparable sets does not guarantee future results. All price data reflects the North American USD market as of May 28, 2026.